2016/17 Will be Second Consecutive Season of Consumption Exceeding Production
Date Posted: 01 Sep, 2016
World cotton production is projected to increase by 6% to 22.5 million tons. Better prices for competing crops, the late arrival of the monsoon and yield losses from pest pressure last season discouraged farmers in India, the world’s largest producer of cotton, and the planted area is projected to fall by 6% to 11.2 million hectares. Sufficient rains should boost the national average yield by 8% to 521 kg/ha, and production is forecast to increase by 2% to 5.8 million tons. The area under cotton in China is projected to contract by 7% to 2.9 million hectares in 2016/17, but the national average yield is expected to improve by 4% to 1,623 kg/ha due to generally favorable weather during the growing season. China’s production is forecast to fall by 3% to 4.7 million tons. The cotton area in the United States is expected to rebound by 10% to 3.6 million hectares, and the average yield is anticipated to increase by 8% to 929 kg/ha due to beneficial weather and plentiful rainfall. As a result, production is forecast to grow by 19% to 3.3 million tons. Losses from poor yields in 2015/16 and weak prices discouraged farmers in Pakistan from planting cotton in 2016/17, and area under cotton is projected to decrease by 5% to 2.7 million hectares. However, the national average yield is expected to rebound by 27% to 669 kg/ha, and production could increase by 20% to 1.8 million tons. Improved weather this summer encouraged farmers in Francophone Africa to expand cotton plantings by 10% to 2.9 million hectares, and the average yield is forecast to increase by 4% to 385 kg/ha. As a result, production in Francophone Africa is projected to grow by 14% to 1.1 million tons.
World cotton consumption is forecast to remain stable at 23.8 million tons. China will likely be the largest consumer in 2016/17 despite an expected decrease in mill use of 3% to 7.1 million tons, which would be the seventh consecutive season of contraction. India’s mill use is expected to remain stable at 5.3 million tons due to strong domestic cotton prices and competition from competing fibers. After declining by 9% in 2015/16, cotton mill use in Pakistan could recover by 1% to 2.3 million tons due to improved access to uninterrupted energy supplies. Turkey’s consumption is forecast to remain stable at 1.45 million tons, while Bangladesh’s mill use is projected to rise by 12% to 1.2 million tons.
Stable demand and larger crops in many of the top exporting countries are expected to lead to an increase in world trade volume of 3% to 7.5 million tons. Imports by Bangladesh are projected to increase by 12% to 1.2 million tons, making it the world’s largest importer. Vietnam’s imports are forecast to grow by 12% to 1.1 million tons. After four seasons of contraction, imports by China could increase by 20,000 tons to 980,000 tons in 2016/17 as consumption remains much larger than production. Exports from the United States are anticipated to rise by 27% to 2.5 million tons. Meanwhile, stable mill use and a smaller crop are likely to lead to a 32% decrease in Indian exports, which are expected to reach 846,000 tons.
| WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION | |||||||
| 2014/15 | 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | 2016/17 | ||
| Changes from previous month | |||||||
| Million Tons | Million Tons | ||||||
| Production | 26.19 | 21.19 | 22.45 | 0.07 | -0.07 | -0.44 | |
| Consumption | 24.20 | 23.85 | 23.81 | 0.02 | 0.00 | -0.12 | |
| Imports | 7.57 | 7.21 | 7.49 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.05 | |
| Exports | 7.72 | 7.36 | 7.49 | 0.00 | 0.05 | -0.05 | |
| Ending Stocks | 22.32 | 19.50 | 18.14 | 0.00 | -0.17 | -0.49 | |
| Cotlook A Index* | 71 | 70 | 75 | ||||
* The price projection for 2016/17 is based on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China in 2014/15 (estimate), in 2015/16 (estimate) and in 2016/17 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2015/16 (estimate) and 2016/17 (projection). The price projection is the mid-point of the 95% confidence interval: 62 cts/lb to 91 cts/lb.
Dr Mansurbek Muminov is a senior scientist at the Scientific Research Institute of Fiber Crops in Uzbekistan. His efforts have focused on basic cotton ginning and spinning, and he has authored more than 10 comprehensive research papers in those areas.
Dr. Keshav R. Kranthi, Ph.D is the Chief Scientist at the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), Washington, DC. Before joining the ICAC, he served as the Director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research (CICR) in Nagpur, India, from 2008 to 2017. Dr. Kranthi has thirty-five years of experience as a cotton scientist. He received a gold medal in his Ph.D. in 1991 and has been honored with more than a dozen awards, including the Best CPP Program Award for Research Leadership by the Renewable Natural Resources Research International, UK; the ICAC Researcher of the Year Award in 2009; the Vasantrao Naik Smruti Pratisthan Award in 2004; the ICAR National Award for Leader of Best Team Research in 2006; Fellow of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences in 2009; the ISCI Recognition Award in 2010; Krishi Gaurav Award in 2010; Bhumi Nirman Award in 2011; ISCI Fellow in 2017; the Plant Protection Recognition Award in 2016 by the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Suresh Kotak Global Cotton Award in 2023 and the CRDA life time achievement Award in 2024. Dr. Kranthi has four patents granted in South Africa, Mexico, China, and Uzbekistan, and six patent applications in India. He has published more than 100 peer-reviewed research papers, 20 books/handbooks/manuals, 17 book chapters, and more than 50 popular articles. Dr. Kranthi has presented invited talks and conducted training sessions in more than 40 countries. His research citations are in excess of 6,500. As the chief principal investigator, he coordinated and led more than 35 externally funded international collaboration research projects.
Dr. Charudatta Mayee, Ph.D is a distinguished Indian agricultural scientist and administrator with over five decades of contributions to Indian agriculture. Dr. Mayee currently serves as Adjunct Professor at IARI, New Delhi, and several ICAR institutions and universities. Dr Mayee served as Vice Chancellor of MAU Parbhani, Director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research (ICAR-CICR), Nagpur, and Agriculture Commissioner for the Government of India. Dr Mayee served as Vice President of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS) India. Dr. C.D. Mayee has received numerous accolades spanning five decades, recognizing his transformative contributions to agricultural science. He is an Alexander von Humboldt Fellow and has received lifetime achievement awards from multiple institutions. His early career was marked by the Prof. M.J. Narasimhan Academic Award (1974) and V.P. Gokhale Award (1998), followed by national honors like the Vasantrao Naik Krishi Award (2002), ICAR Outstanding Team Research Award (2003), and Dr. B. Vishwanath Award (2005). He received Lifetime Achievement Awards from the Indian Society for Cotton Improvement (2008), National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (2011), and Indian Phytopathological Society (2017), among others. Four universities conferred Honorary Doctorates (D.Sc.) for his pioneering work (2009–2023). Recent distinctions include the Best Cotton Scientist Award (2022, Cotton Association of India), Krishi Maharshi for Cotton R&D (2024) and the winner of the ICAC Researcher of the Year Award 2025.
Dr. Khalid Mahmood is the Co-Founder of SAWiE, where he has been instrumental in developing digital farm advisory and farm data platforms supporting over 10,000 farmers in Pakistan, improving traceability and transparency across agricultural supply chains. He is leading the development of first-mile traceability systems and the TRUE Cotton platform, connecting farmers with sustainable global textile supply chains.
Dr Olivier Zieschank studied Management at the university of Lausanne, where he graduated in 2005. Until 2010, he worked in a Swiss-based start-up that specialized in negotiating cell tower lease agreements, where he became associate director. In 2010, he returned to university and studied applied economics in Neuchatel, Switzerland. He wrote his PhD in Economics at the University of Freiberg, Germany, where he developed a theory of organization. Mr Zieschank was appointed Economist at the ITMF in August 2017 and became director in January 2021.
Ashwin Chandran holds a Bachelors Degree in Textile Technology from UMIST, UK and a Masters degree in Business Administration from the University of Illinois, USA.
Mr. Shreyans Gupta is an officer of the Indian Revenue Service (IRS), currently serving as First Secretary at the Embassy of India in Washington D.C. In his current role, he oversees critical portfolios within the Income-tax Overseas Unit (ITOU) and the Commerce Wing, facilitating bilateral and multilateral cooperation.
Eric Trachtenberg is the Executive Director of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).
Pia Terasa joined the textile machinery manufacturer Saurer over 25 years ago. She is responsible for marketing and communications at the group level. Coming originally from a non-textile background, market intelligence and business development have played major roles throughout her career. Her current main “hobby” is closely monitoring development of the textile recycling industry and circular economy.
Dr. Md. Fakhre Alam Ibne Tabib is the former Executive Director of the Cotton Development Board of Bangladesh, with over 32 years of experience in cotton production, research, and development. He has demonstrated strong leadership and communication skills in engaging with national and international stakeholders in the cotton sector.
Dr. Elsie Sia Kanza is the current Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United Republic of Tanzania to the United States of America and Mexico. Prior to that role, Ambassador Kanza served as Special Advisor to the President of the World Economic Forum, and, before that, Head of Africa and Member of Executive Committee for 10 years championing growth and development in Africa leveraging public private collaboration. In 2015, She was awarded a Doctorate in Business Administration (honoris causa) by the University of Strathclyde for the transformative impact achieved in Africa.
Alison Ward has over 30 years of international experience in sustainability and corporate affairs. Alison is the CEO of CottonConnect, where she leads a team of over 100 employees, impacting the lives of over 800,000 cotton farmers in India, China, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Bangladesh. Under Alison’s leadership the organization: drives supply chain transparency connecting sustainable fibres from farm to store; focuses on the rights and skills of women in supply chains through pioneering gender programmes; and continues to develop innovations at a farm level. She leads cotton strategies and programmes for global brands and retailers.


Name: Mary Concilia Anchang
Besim Özek
SIDDHARTHA RAJAGOPAL, Executive Director – TEXPROCIL