For Immediate Release
Date Posted: 17 December 2018
Highlights from the December edition regarding the 2018/19 season:
Global Stocks Expected to Decrease; China’s Reserves at Lowest Levels in Years
For the first time since 2015/16, global cotton production is expected to decrease in 2018/19, after consecutive increases of 7% and 16% in the two prior seasons. A number of producers are expected to show increases — including China, Brazil, West Africa, Turkey and Uzbekistan — but it likely won’t be enough to offset decreases in the United States, India, Australia and Pakistan.
Consumption, which managed to post a 9% increase to 26.8 million tonnes in 2017/18, is forecast to drop slightly to 26.7 million tonnes in the coming year. The tariffs imposed in the much-publicised trade war between the USA and China are not expected to influence consumption directly, although they could affect textile demand if they have a slowing effect on economic growth.
With consumption projected to exceed production in 2018/19, the drawdown of stocks continues. Globally, stocks are expected to decrease from 18.8 million tonnes to 18.2 million tonnes, due almost exclusively to big decreases in China’s warehouses. The world outside of China actually will see a minor gain in stocks, but not enough to offset the declines in China, where the projected total of 7.6 million tonnes would represent the country’s lowest levels since 2011/12.
World Cotton Supply and Distribution
Changes from previous month
Cotlook A Index
*The price projection for 2018/19 is based on the ending stocks-to-mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2016/17 (estimate), in 2017/18 (estimate) and in 2018/19 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2017/18 (estimate) and 2018/19 (projection), and the average price of 2017/18. Projection reflects 95% confidence interval.
Published at the start of each month by the Secretariat of the International Cotton Advisory Committee,
1629 K Street NW, Suite 702, Washington, DC 20006. Copyright © ICAC 2018.
No reproduction is permitted in whole or part without the express consent of the Secretariat.
To subscribeto Cotton This Month, please click .
If you are a subscriberto Cotton This Month, please access your account with your user name and password by clicking . Once in your account, please go to Past Orders and select Cotton This Month.
About the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming and trading countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping member countries maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton issues of international significance. The ICAC does not have a role in setting market prices or in intervening in market mechanisms. For more information, please visit www.icac.org.