Global Consumption Growth Projected to Slow to 0.04% in 2018/19

For Immediate Release by the ICAC  

 

Date Posted: 1 March 2019

 

Executive Summary

Highlights from the March edition of Cotton This Month regarding the 2018/19 season:

  • Global consumption growth is expected to slow to 0.04%
  • Growth in mill-use in East Asia is expected to slow to 6%
  • Mill-use expansion in Bangladesh is expected to slow to 7%
  • China’s consumption growth is expected to slow by 8%
  • Consumption is expected to increase by double digits in Turkey, Indonesia and Uzbekistan 

 

 

 

Global Consumption Growth Projected to Slow to 0.04% in 2018/19

 

Global cotton consumption is projected to post its third straight year of growth — but just barely, with an expected increase of only 0.04%. Many of the top consuming countries are undergoing a slowing in consumption growth, including:

·     East Asia — 6%, down from 14% the year before

·      Bangladesh — 7%, down from 15% in 2017/18

·     Vietnam — 3%, down from seven straight seasons of double-digit growth.

 

After posting 15% growth in 2017/18, China is expected to see its consumption growth slow by 8%.

 

On the other end of the spectrum are Turkey, Indonesia and Uzbekistan, all of which are projected to increase their consumption by double digits. India is expected to expand its mill-use as well, although by only 1%.

 

The future of US-China trade tariffs remains uncertain, and while they might soon be lifted, they might also be increased. That lack of clarity is making it difficult for growers in the Northern Hemisphere to make their planting decisions for the coming season.

 

 

World Cotton Supply and Distribution

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

Changes from previous month

Million Tons

Million Tons

Production

23.08

26.72

26.04

 

0.00

-0.03

-0.12

Consumption

24.54

26.85

26.87

0.05

0.04

0.16

Imports

8.08

8.95

9.37

 

0.01

0.07

-0.05

Exports

8.19

9.07

9.37

0.01

0.07

-0.05

Ending Stocks

18.72

18.47

17.64

 

-0.09

-0.29

-0.57

Cotlook A Index*

83

88

 87

 

 

 

 

 

 

*The price projection for 2018/19 is based on the ending stocks-to-mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2016/17 (estimate), in 2017/18 (estimate) and in 2018/19 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2017/18 (estimate) and 2018/19 (projection), and the average price of 2017/18. Projection reflects 95% confidence interval.

 

 

Published at the start of each month by the Secretariat of the International Cotton Advisory Committee,

1629 K Street NW, Suite 702, Washington, DC 20006. Copyright © ICAC 2019.

No reproduction is permitted in whole or part without the express consent of the Secretariat.

 

 

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About the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)

Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming and trading countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping member countries maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton issues of international significance. The ICAC does not have a role in setting market prices or in intervening in market mechanisms. For more information, please visit www.icac.org.