ICAC Revises Its Price Forecast to 86.45 cents

For Immediate Release 

 

Date Posted: 2 January 2019

 

Executive Summary

Highlights from the January edition of Cotton This Month regarding the 2018/19 season:

  • The midpoint for the 2018/19 price forecast is 86.45 cents/lb, down from last month’s forecast of 89 cents
  • The price forecast has a range from 75.60 cents to 100.21 cents
  • The projection reflects a 95% confidence interval
  • The forecast is based various assumptions, including global consumption, ending stocks, and world trade

 

 

 

ICAC Revises Its Price Forecast to 86.45 cents

 

With a confidence interval of 95%, the Secretariat of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has set its 2018/19 price forecast for cotton fibre at 86.45 cents per pound, down from 89 cents in December 2018.

The forecast, which has a price range from a low of 75.60 cents to a high of 100.21 cents, is based on the following assumptions:

  • World cotton consumption will be 26.7 million tonnes.
  • World cotton ending stocks will be 18.2 million tonnes.
  • World trade will be 9.4 million tonnes.
  • China’s cotton consumption will be 8.45 million tonnes.
  • Ending stocks in China will be 7.66 million tonnes, and
  • China’s cotton imports will total 1.6 million tonnes.

 

 

World Cotton Supply and Demand

 

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

 

Million Tonnes

Change/Month

Million Tonnes

Change/Month

Million Tonnes

Change/Month

Beginning Stocks

20.33

0.00

18.81

0.00

18.76

0.00

Production

23.08

0.00

26.75

0.00

26.16

0.04

Supply

43.41

0.00

45.57

0.00

44.92

0.04

Consumption

24.50

0.00

26.81

0.00

26.70

-0.02

Exports

8.18

0.00

9.00

0.00

9.42

0.00

Ending Stocks

18.81

0.00

18.76

0.00

18.21

0.05

 

ICAC Price Projections

Season-average Cotlook A Index (US cents per pound)

Projections

Previous Month

This Month

 

Range

Midpoint

Range

Midpoint

2018/19*

74-107

89

76-100

86

 

 

 

 

 

*The price projection for 2018/19 is based on the ending stocks-to-mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2016/17 (estimate), in 2017/18 (estimate) and in 2018/19 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2017/18 (estimate) and 2018/19 (projection), and the average price of 2017/18.  Projection reflects 95% confidence interval.

 

 

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About the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)

Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming and trading countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping member countries maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton issues of international significance. The ICAC does not have a role in setting market prices or in intervening in market mechanisms. For more information, please visit www.icac.org.