Tariffs to Escalate, Production to Outpace Consumption
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Date Posted: April 1, 2025
Washington, DC — In the 2024/25 season, estimates show that production should reach 25.9 million tonnes, 7.38% higher than in 2023/24. Consumption is expected to increase but by a smaller percentage (2.27%), reaching 25.5 million tonnes. Given escalating tariffs, regulatory pressures, and fiber market competition, consumption is expected to remain under pressure.
World trade is estimated to be about 9.9 million tonnes, which is very close to the previous season’s levels. The cotton lint trade is under slight pressure due to tariff escalations between China and USA, with both being leaders and close bilateral trade partners in cotton. Any changes in trade policies between those two countries would have ripple effects all over the global cotton trade.
In 2018 and 2019, during the trade tension phase between US and China, China had diverted its trade basket away from the USA and towards Brazil and Australia for its cotton import needs; those countries are expected to gain the most if tariff escalations between US and China continue in 2025. In the 2024/25 season, the USA has supplied comparatively more cotton to Pakistan and Vietnam than China.
Please note that the cotton balance sheets have been moved to the ICAC Data Dashboard. This ensures that the season balance sheets are always up-to-date and available whenever you need them. This also helps to reduce errors because the data is compiled directly from our database. They are included in this PDF report, but we strongly encourage users to obtain all data from the Dashboard.
Dr Matthew Looney has resigned as Data Scientist at the ICAC. The new author of Cotton This Month is Parkhi Vats, ICAC Economic Affairs Officer. You can email her with comments and questions by clicking here.
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About the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming, trading, and investing countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping Member governments maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton issues of international significance. In addition, Members can take advantage of the ICAC’s global network of cotton researchers, whose expertise covers the supply chain from farm to textile manufacturing, and have free access to its cutting-edge technologies like the voice-based app and virtual reality cotton training program. Committed to ensuring cotton’s continued sustainability, the ICAC is the only intergovernmental commodity body covering cotton that is recognized by the United Nations. For more information, please visit www.icac.org, Twitter or LinkedIn.