China’s Cotton Reserve Sales Likely to Impact Imports and Stocks
Date Posted: 02 May, 2016
As China’s cotton imports have fallen, so have world imports. In 2015/16, world cotton imports are expected to decline by 3% to 7.4 million tons and China’s imports by 40% to 1.1 million tons. During this time, imports by Vietnam and Bangladesh have continued to grow along with rising cotton consumption. In 2015/16, Vietnam’s imports are expected to rise by 17% to 1.1 million tons and Bangladesh by 12% to 1.1 million tons. In 2016/17, China’s imports are forecast to decrease by 13% to 940,000 tons as imports are expected to be limited to the volume required by its WTO agreement, with sales from the reserve to supplement extra demand.
Restrictions on cotton imports and the sales from government reserves may cause ending stocks in China to fall by 7% to 12 million tons in 2015/16, which would be the first decrease since 2010/11. Assuming similar conditions, China’s ending stocks may be reduced by 10% to 10.9 million tons by the end of 2016/17. Stocks outside of China are projected to decline by 7% to 8.4 million tons by the end of 2015/16, but are forecast to increase by 2% to 8.7 million tons in 2016/17.
World cotton production is expected to increase slightly limiting the reduction in world ending stocks in 2016/17. After contracting by 9% to 31.2 million hectares in 2015/16, world cotton is projected to expand by 1% to 31.4 million hectares as declining prices for competing crops in 2015/16 encourages farmers to return to cotton in 2016/17 despite low prices. In addition, the world average yield is forecast to improve by 4% to 732 kg/ha, and world production could increase by 4%, from 22 million tons in 2015/16 to 23 million tons in 2016/17. Cotton area in India is forecast to rise by 4% to 12.4 million hectares and production by 10% to 6.5 million tons. High production costs in China make cotton less attractive despite high prices, and area in China is expected to decrease by 10% to 3.1 hectares in 2016/17. Assuming yield is the same as in 2015/16, production would fall by 10% to 4.6 million tons. Cotton production in the United States declined by 21% to 2.8 million tons in 2015/16 as the drop in cotton prices discouraged farmers from planting, but more attractive prices relative to competing crops could encourage farmers to return to cotton with area to expand by 2% to 3.3 million hectares. Assuming yield is similar to the five-year average, production could rise by 9% to 3.1 million tons. Pakistan’s production is forecast to increase by 35% to 2 million tons in 2016/17 assuming yield recovers from the 32% drop to 528 kg/ha in 2015/16.
After falling by 3% in 2015/16, cotton consumption is projected to remain at 23.7 million tons in 2016/17 as polyester prices will likely remain well below cotton prices. Cotton mill use in China, the world’s largest consumer, is projected down by 5% to 7.1 million tons and will likely decrease by an additional 5% to 6.8 million tons in 2016/17 due to its slowing economy. After contracting in 2015/16, consumption in India and Pakistan may recover in 2016/17 by 4% to 5.5 million tons and by 1% to 2.2 million tons, respectively.
| WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION | |||||||
| 2014/15 | 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | 2016/17 | ||
| Changes from previous month | |||||||
| Million Tons | Million Tons | ||||||
| Production | 26.12 | 21.98 | 22.96 | 0.01 | -0.05 | 0.01 | |
| Consumption | 24.33 | 23.67 | 23.77 | -0.01 | -0.12 | -0.12 | |
| Imports | 7.59 | 7.36 | 7.43 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.06 | |
| Exports | 7.70 | 7.36 | 7.43 | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.06 | |
| Ending Stocks | 22.09 | 20.40 | 19.59 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.20 | |
| Cotlook A Index* | 71 | 70 | 71 | ||||
The price projection for 2015/16 is based on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China in 2013/14 (estimate), in 2014/15 (estimate) and in 2015/16 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2014/15 (estimate) and 2015/16 (projection). The price projection is the mid-point of the 95% confidence interval: 66 cts/lb to 74 cts/lb.
The price projection for 2016/17 is based on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China in 2014/15 (estimate), in 2015/16 (projection) and in 2016/17 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2015/16 (projection) and 2016/17 (projection). The price projection is the mid-point of the 95% confidence interval: 57 cts/lb to 87 cts/lb.
Dr Mansurbek Muminov is a senior scientist at the Scientific Research Institute of Fiber Crops in Uzbekistan. His efforts have focused on basic cotton ginning and spinning, and he has authored more than 10 comprehensive research papers in those areas.
Dr. Keshav R. Kranthi, Ph.D is the Chief Scientist at the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), Washington, DC. Before joining the ICAC, he served as the Director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research (CICR) in Nagpur, India, from 2008 to 2017. Dr. Kranthi has thirty-five years of experience as a cotton scientist. He received a gold medal in his Ph.D. in 1991 and has been honored with more than a dozen awards, including the Best CPP Program Award for Research Leadership by the Renewable Natural Resources Research International, UK; the ICAC Researcher of the Year Award in 2009; the Vasantrao Naik Smruti Pratisthan Award in 2004; the ICAR National Award for Leader of Best Team Research in 2006; Fellow of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences in 2009; the ISCI Recognition Award in 2010; Krishi Gaurav Award in 2010; Bhumi Nirman Award in 2011; ISCI Fellow in 2017; the Plant Protection Recognition Award in 2016 by the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Suresh Kotak Global Cotton Award in 2023 and the CRDA life time achievement Award in 2024. Dr. Kranthi has four patents granted in South Africa, Mexico, China, and Uzbekistan, and six patent applications in India. He has published more than 100 peer-reviewed research papers, 20 books/handbooks/manuals, 17 book chapters, and more than 50 popular articles. Dr. Kranthi has presented invited talks and conducted training sessions in more than 40 countries. His research citations are in excess of 6,500. As the chief principal investigator, he coordinated and led more than 35 externally funded international collaboration research projects.
Dr. Charudatta Mayee, Ph.D is a distinguished Indian agricultural scientist and administrator with over five decades of contributions to Indian agriculture. Dr. Mayee currently serves as Adjunct Professor at IARI, New Delhi, and several ICAR institutions and universities. Dr Mayee served as Vice Chancellor of MAU Parbhani, Director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research (ICAR-CICR), Nagpur, and Agriculture Commissioner for the Government of India. Dr Mayee served as Vice President of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS) India. Dr. C.D. Mayee has received numerous accolades spanning five decades, recognizing his transformative contributions to agricultural science. He is an Alexander von Humboldt Fellow and has received lifetime achievement awards from multiple institutions. His early career was marked by the Prof. M.J. Narasimhan Academic Award (1974) and V.P. Gokhale Award (1998), followed by national honors like the Vasantrao Naik Krishi Award (2002), ICAR Outstanding Team Research Award (2003), and Dr. B. Vishwanath Award (2005). He received Lifetime Achievement Awards from the Indian Society for Cotton Improvement (2008), National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (2011), and Indian Phytopathological Society (2017), among others. Four universities conferred Honorary Doctorates (D.Sc.) for his pioneering work (2009–2023). Recent distinctions include the Best Cotton Scientist Award (2022, Cotton Association of India), Krishi Maharshi for Cotton R&D (2024) and the winner of the ICAC Researcher of the Year Award 2025.
Dr. Khalid Mahmood is the Co-Founder of SAWiE, where he has been instrumental in developing digital farm advisory and farm data platforms supporting over 10,000 farmers in Pakistan, improving traceability and transparency across agricultural supply chains. He is leading the development of first-mile traceability systems and the TRUE Cotton platform, connecting farmers with sustainable global textile supply chains.
Dr Olivier Zieschank studied Management at the university of Lausanne, where he graduated in 2005. Until 2010, he worked in a Swiss-based start-up that specialized in negotiating cell tower lease agreements, where he became associate director. In 2010, he returned to university and studied applied economics in Neuchatel, Switzerland. He wrote his PhD in Economics at the University of Freiberg, Germany, where he developed a theory of organization. Mr Zieschank was appointed Economist at the ITMF in August 2017 and became director in January 2021.
Ashwin Chandran holds a Bachelors Degree in Textile Technology from UMIST, UK and a Masters degree in Business Administration from the University of Illinois, USA.
Mr. Shreyans Gupta is an officer of the Indian Revenue Service (IRS), currently serving as First Secretary at the Embassy of India in Washington D.C. In his current role, he oversees critical portfolios within the Income-tax Overseas Unit (ITOU) and the Commerce Wing, facilitating bilateral and multilateral cooperation.
Eric Trachtenberg is the Executive Director of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).
Pia Terasa joined the textile machinery manufacturer Saurer over 25 years ago. She is responsible for marketing and communications at the group level. Coming originally from a non-textile background, market intelligence and business development have played major roles throughout her career. Her current main “hobby” is closely monitoring development of the textile recycling industry and circular economy.
Dr. Md. Fakhre Alam Ibne Tabib is the former Executive Director of the Cotton Development Board of Bangladesh, with over 32 years of experience in cotton production, research, and development. He has demonstrated strong leadership and communication skills in engaging with national and international stakeholders in the cotton sector.
Dr. Elsie Sia Kanza is the current Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United Republic of Tanzania to the United States of America and Mexico. Prior to that role, Ambassador Kanza served as Special Advisor to the President of the World Economic Forum, and, before that, Head of Africa and Member of Executive Committee for 10 years championing growth and development in Africa leveraging public private collaboration. In 2015, She was awarded a Doctorate in Business Administration (honoris causa) by the University of Strathclyde for the transformative impact achieved in Africa.
Alison Ward has over 30 years of international experience in sustainability and corporate affairs. Alison is the CEO of CottonConnect, where she leads a team of over 100 employees, impacting the lives of over 800,000 cotton farmers in India, China, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Bangladesh. Under Alison’s leadership the organization: drives supply chain transparency connecting sustainable fibres from farm to store; focuses on the rights and skills of women in supply chains through pioneering gender programmes; and continues to develop innovations at a farm level. She leads cotton strategies and programmes for global brands and retailers.


Name: Mary Concilia Anchang
Besim Özek
SIDDHARTHA RAJAGOPAL, Executive Director – TEXPROCIL