Date Posted: 1, Aug 2018
Executive Summary
Highlights from the August 2018 edition of Cotton This Month:
- Cotton demand is strong, with consumption projected to increase 4% to reach an all-time high of 27.5 million tonnes in 2018/19.
- After dropping from a season-high of 101.7 cents per pound in mid-June to 92 cents per pound in early July, prices have bounced back and remain higher than the season average of 88 cents per pound.
- Farmers’ ability to capitalise on the strong demand is limited due to environmental stresses and water availability.
- Cotton area in 2018/19 is projected to decrease in major producing countries including India (11.9 million hectares, down 3%) and the USA (4.25 million hectares, down 5%), although it should remain stable in China at 3.3 million hectares.
Consumption Projected at a Record 27.5 Million Tonnes in 2018/19
Sour trade relations between China and the USA show little signs of improving, and could even deteriorate further in the near term, potentially causing major shifts in global trade patterns. China’s 25% premium could prompt the USA, the world’s largest exporter, to seek new markets for its fibre, while other major exporters such as Brazil are expected to fill the void by increasing their shipments to China, the world’s largest importer.
Global production has increased 16% to 26.87 million tonnes in 2017/18, with increases expected from all major producers: India, China, USA, Brazil, Pakistan, West Africa, Turkey, Australia and Uzbekistan. Those increases, however, are the result of expanded plantings and favourable weather conditions, as global yields posted a marginal increase of 1%.
Global production for the 2018/19 season is currently projected at 25.9 million tonnes, which would represent a 4% decrease. Global consumption, on the other hand, is currently projected to increase 4% to 27.5 million tonnes.
With global consumption at an all-time high, pressure on stocks is expected to reduce global reserves by 1.6 million tonnes to finish the 2018/19 season at 17.7 million tonnes. Stocks in China are projected to decrease for the fifth consecutive year to 7.5 million tonnes, while stocks outside are expected to remain stable at 10.1 million tonnes.
| WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION | |||||||
| 2016/17 | 2017/18 | 2018/19 | 2016/17 | 2017/18 | 2018/19 | ||
| Changes from previous month | |||||||
| Million Tons | Million Tons | ||||||
| Production | 23.08 | 26.87 | 25.89 | 0.00 | 0.23 | -0.05 | |
| Consumption | 24.52 | 26.38 | 27.46 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.04 | |
| Imports | 8.12 | 9.08 | 9.47 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.14 | |
| Exports | 8.19 | 9.08 | 9.47 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.14 | |
| Ending Stocks | 18.80 | 19.29 | 17.71 | 0.00 | 0.01 | -0.08 | |
| Cotlook A Index* | 83 | 88 | 87* | ||||
*The price projection for 2018/19 is based on the ending stocks-to-mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2016/17 (estimate), in 2017/18 (estimate) and in 2018/19 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2017/18 (estimate) and 2018/19 (projection), and the average price of 2017/18. Projection reflects 95% confidence interval.
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About the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
Dr Mansurbek Muminov is a senior scientist at the Scientific Research Institute of Fiber Crops in Uzbekistan. His efforts have focused on basic cotton ginning and spinning, and he has authored more than 10 comprehensive research papers in those areas.
Dr. Keshav R. Kranthi, Ph.D is the Chief Scientist at the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), Washington, DC. Before joining the ICAC, he served as the Director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research (CICR) in Nagpur, India, from 2008 to 2017. Dr. Kranthi has thirty-five years of experience as a cotton scientist. He received a gold medal in his Ph.D. in 1991 and has been honored with more than a dozen awards, including the Best CPP Program Award for Research Leadership by the Renewable Natural Resources Research International, UK; the ICAC Researcher of the Year Award in 2009; the Vasantrao Naik Smruti Pratisthan Award in 2004; the ICAR National Award for Leader of Best Team Research in 2006; Fellow of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences in 2009; the ISCI Recognition Award in 2010; Krishi Gaurav Award in 2010; Bhumi Nirman Award in 2011; ISCI Fellow in 2017; the Plant Protection Recognition Award in 2016 by the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Suresh Kotak Global Cotton Award in 2023 and the CRDA life time achievement Award in 2024. Dr. Kranthi has four patents granted in South Africa, Mexico, China, and Uzbekistan, and six patent applications in India. He has published more than 100 peer-reviewed research papers, 20 books/handbooks/manuals, 17 book chapters, and more than 50 popular articles. Dr. Kranthi has presented invited talks and conducted training sessions in more than 40 countries. His research citations are in excess of 6,500. As the chief principal investigator, he coordinated and led more than 35 externally funded international collaboration research projects.
Dr. Charudatta Mayee, Ph.D is a distinguished Indian agricultural scientist and administrator with over five decades of contributions to Indian agriculture. Dr. Mayee currently serves as Adjunct Professor at IARI, New Delhi, and several ICAR institutions and universities. Dr Mayee served as Vice Chancellor of MAU Parbhani, Director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research (ICAR-CICR), Nagpur, and Agriculture Commissioner for the Government of India. Dr Mayee served as Vice President of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS) India. Dr. C.D. Mayee has received numerous accolades spanning five decades, recognizing his transformative contributions to agricultural science. He is an Alexander von Humboldt Fellow and has received lifetime achievement awards from multiple institutions. His early career was marked by the Prof. M.J. Narasimhan Academic Award (1974) and V.P. Gokhale Award (1998), followed by national honors like the Vasantrao Naik Krishi Award (2002), ICAR Outstanding Team Research Award (2003), and Dr. B. Vishwanath Award (2005). He received Lifetime Achievement Awards from the Indian Society for Cotton Improvement (2008), National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (2011), and Indian Phytopathological Society (2017), among others. Four universities conferred Honorary Doctorates (D.Sc.) for his pioneering work (2009–2023). Recent distinctions include the Best Cotton Scientist Award (2022, Cotton Association of India), Krishi Maharshi for Cotton R&D (2024) and the winner of the ICAC Researcher of the Year Award 2025.
Dr. Khalid Mahmood is the Co-Founder of SAWiE, where he has been instrumental in developing digital farm advisory and farm data platforms supporting over 10,000 farmers in Pakistan, improving traceability and transparency across agricultural supply chains. He is leading the development of first-mile traceability systems and the TRUE Cotton platform, connecting farmers with sustainable global textile supply chains.
Dr Olivier Zieschank studied Management at the university of Lausanne, where he graduated in 2005. Until 2010, he worked in a Swiss-based start-up that specialized in negotiating cell tower lease agreements, where he became associate director. In 2010, he returned to university and studied applied economics in Neuchatel, Switzerland. He wrote his PhD in Economics at the University of Freiberg, Germany, where he developed a theory of organization. Mr Zieschank was appointed Economist at the ITMF in August 2017 and became director in January 2021.
Ashwin Chandran holds a Bachelors Degree in Textile Technology from UMIST, UK and a Masters degree in Business Administration from the University of Illinois, USA.
Mr. Shreyans Gupta is an officer of the Indian Revenue Service (IRS), currently serving as First Secretary at the Embassy of India in Washington D.C. In his current role, he oversees critical portfolios within the Income-tax Overseas Unit (ITOU) and the Commerce Wing, facilitating bilateral and multilateral cooperation.
Eric Trachtenberg is the Executive Director of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).
Pia Terasa joined the textile machinery manufacturer Saurer over 25 years ago. She is responsible for marketing and communications at the group level. Coming originally from a non-textile background, market intelligence and business development have played major roles throughout her career. Her current main “hobby” is closely monitoring development of the textile recycling industry and circular economy.
Dr. Md. Fakhre Alam Ibne Tabib is the former Executive Director of the Cotton Development Board of Bangladesh, with over 32 years of experience in cotton production, research, and development. He has demonstrated strong leadership and communication skills in engaging with national and international stakeholders in the cotton sector.
Dr. Elsie Sia Kanza is the current Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United Republic of Tanzania to the United States of America and Mexico. Prior to that role, Ambassador Kanza served as Special Advisor to the President of the World Economic Forum, and, before that, Head of Africa and Member of Executive Committee for 10 years championing growth and development in Africa leveraging public private collaboration. In 2015, She was awarded a Doctorate in Business Administration (honoris causa) by the University of Strathclyde for the transformative impact achieved in Africa.
Alison Ward has over 30 years of international experience in sustainability and corporate affairs. Alison is the CEO of CottonConnect, where she leads a team of over 100 employees, impacting the lives of over 800,000 cotton farmers in India, China, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Bangladesh. Under Alison’s leadership the organization: drives supply chain transparency connecting sustainable fibres from farm to store; focuses on the rights and skills of women in supply chains through pioneering gender programmes; and continues to develop innovations at a farm level. She leads cotton strategies and programmes for global brands and retailers.


Name: Mary Concilia Anchang
Besim Özek
SIDDHARTHA RAJAGOPAL, Executive Director – TEXPROCIL