Date Posted: 01 Apr, 2015
World production in 2014/15 is estimated at 26.4 million tons, up 1% from the previous season, while world average yield decreased 2% to 791 kg/ha. In India, area grew 5% to 12.3 million hectares in 2014/15, which is the largest area planted with cotton on record. However, erratic monsoon weather last summer caused India’s average yield to fall 5% to 551 kg/ha. As a result, production reached 6.7 million tons, about 20,000 tons fewer than in 203/14. Harvested area in the United States grew 29% to 3.9 million hectares, and production increased 26% to 3.5 million tons. In contrast, the area in China, Pakistan and Brazil decreased in 2014/15. After reaching 5.5 million hectares in 2011/12, the area under cotton in China has dropped in each of the subsequent seasons, despite high domestic prices, and is estimated at 4.3 million hectares in 2014/15, down 8% from 2013/14. Scarcity of labor, rising production costs, and greater profitability from other crops are among the factors that have discouraged farmers from planting cotton in China. China’s cotton production is estimated at 6.4 million tons in 2014/15. Although planted area in Pakistan increased slightly from 2013/14 to 2.9 million hectares, flooding in the autumn caused a loss of around 86,000 hectares so that harvested area decreased 3% to 2.8 million hectares. However, greatly improved yield is likely to push production to 2.3 million tons. Farmers in Brazil were discouraged by the sudden drop in international prices in the months before planting, and area in Brazil fell 13% to 976,000 hectares. Production is projected down 11% to just over 1.5 million tons.
After falling 1% in 2013/14, world consumption is projected to expand 3% to 24.1 million tons in 2014/15 with growth in Asia dominating. China’s consumption is expected to recover 5% to 7.9 million tons after several seasons of decline. India, the world’s second largest consumer is projected to increase consumption by 4% to 5.2 million tons while consumption in Pakistan is forecast to grow 2% to 2.3 million tons, making it the third largest consumer in the world. In 2015/16, consumption is expected to grow modestly by 2% to 24.6 million tons. World imports are forecast down 15% to 7.4 million tons in 2014/15 with imports by the world’s largest importer, China, expected to drop 50% to 1.5 million tons due to the greater availability of domestic cotton in 2014/15 and the restriction on additional import quota in 2015.
Although consumption is recovering in 2014/15, a production surplus of 2.3 million tons is likely, resulting in another year of rising ending stocks. In 2014/15, world ending cotton stocks are expected to rise by 12% to 21.8 million tons, which represents 90% of world consumption this season. However, in 2015/16, ending stocks may decrease by 3% to 21.2 million tons.
| WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION | |||||||
| 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2014/15 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | ||
| Changes from previous month | |||||||
| Million Tons | Million Tons | ||||||
| Production | 26.27 | 26.43 | 23.99 | -0.01 | 0.07 | -0.42 | |
| Consumption | 23.49 | 24.14 | 24.55 | -0.01 | -0.08 | -0.10 | |
| Imports | 8.74 | 7.39 | 7.68 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.13 | |
| Exports | 8.87 | 7.39 | 7.68 | 0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 | |
| Ending Stocks | 19.48 | 21.77 | 21.21 | -0.05 | 0.11 | -0.20 | |
| Cotlook A Index* | 91 | 68* | 61** | ||||
*The price projection for 2014/15 is based on the ending stocks/mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2012/13 (estimate), in 2013/14 (estimate) and 2014/15 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2013/14 (estimate) and 2014/15 (projection). The price projection is the mid-point of the 95% confidence interval: 63 cts/lb to 74 cts/lb.
**The price projection for 2015/16 is based on the ending stocks to mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2013/14 (estimate), 2014/15 (projection) and 2015/16 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2015/16 (projection), and on the price projection for 2014/15. The price forecast for 2015/16 is the mid-point of the 95% confidence interval: 49 cts/lb. to 75 cts/lb.
Dr Mansurbek Muminov is a senior scientist at the Scientific Research Institute of Fiber Crops in Uzbekistan. His efforts have focused on basic cotton ginning and spinning, and he has authored more than 10 comprehensive research papers in those areas.
Dr. Keshav R. Kranthi, Ph.D is the Chief Scientist at the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), Washington, DC. Before joining the ICAC, he served as the Director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research (CICR) in Nagpur, India, from 2008 to 2017. Dr. Kranthi has thirty-five years of experience as a cotton scientist. He received a gold medal in his Ph.D. in 1991 and has been honored with more than a dozen awards, including the Best CPP Program Award for Research Leadership by the Renewable Natural Resources Research International, UK; the ICAC Researcher of the Year Award in 2009; the Vasantrao Naik Smruti Pratisthan Award in 2004; the ICAR National Award for Leader of Best Team Research in 2006; Fellow of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences in 2009; the ISCI Recognition Award in 2010; Krishi Gaurav Award in 2010; Bhumi Nirman Award in 2011; ISCI Fellow in 2017; the Plant Protection Recognition Award in 2016 by the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Suresh Kotak Global Cotton Award in 2023 and the CRDA life time achievement Award in 2024. Dr. Kranthi has four patents granted in South Africa, Mexico, China, and Uzbekistan, and six patent applications in India. He has published more than 100 peer-reviewed research papers, 20 books/handbooks/manuals, 17 book chapters, and more than 50 popular articles. Dr. Kranthi has presented invited talks and conducted training sessions in more than 40 countries. His research citations are in excess of 6,500. As the chief principal investigator, he coordinated and led more than 35 externally funded international collaboration research projects.
Dr. Charudatta Mayee, Ph.D is a distinguished Indian agricultural scientist and administrator with over five decades of contributions to Indian agriculture. Dr. Mayee currently serves as Adjunct Professor at IARI, New Delhi, and several ICAR institutions and universities. Dr Mayee served as Vice Chancellor of MAU Parbhani, Director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research (ICAR-CICR), Nagpur, and Agriculture Commissioner for the Government of India. Dr Mayee served as Vice President of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS) India. Dr. C.D. Mayee has received numerous accolades spanning five decades, recognizing his transformative contributions to agricultural science. He is an Alexander von Humboldt Fellow and has received lifetime achievement awards from multiple institutions. His early career was marked by the Prof. M.J. Narasimhan Academic Award (1974) and V.P. Gokhale Award (1998), followed by national honors like the Vasantrao Naik Krishi Award (2002), ICAR Outstanding Team Research Award (2003), and Dr. B. Vishwanath Award (2005). He received Lifetime Achievement Awards from the Indian Society for Cotton Improvement (2008), National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (2011), and Indian Phytopathological Society (2017), among others. Four universities conferred Honorary Doctorates (D.Sc.) for his pioneering work (2009–2023). Recent distinctions include the Best Cotton Scientist Award (2022, Cotton Association of India), Krishi Maharshi for Cotton R&D (2024) and the winner of the ICAC Researcher of the Year Award 2025.
Dr. Khalid Mahmood is the Co-Founder of SAWiE, where he has been instrumental in developing digital farm advisory and farm data platforms supporting over 10,000 farmers in Pakistan, improving traceability and transparency across agricultural supply chains. He is leading the development of first-mile traceability systems and the TRUE Cotton platform, connecting farmers with sustainable global textile supply chains.
Dr Olivier Zieschank studied Management at the university of Lausanne, where he graduated in 2005. Until 2010, he worked in a Swiss-based start-up that specialized in negotiating cell tower lease agreements, where he became associate director. In 2010, he returned to university and studied applied economics in Neuchatel, Switzerland. He wrote his PhD in Economics at the University of Freiberg, Germany, where he developed a theory of organization. Mr Zieschank was appointed Economist at the ITMF in August 2017 and became director in January 2021.
Ashwin Chandran holds a Bachelors Degree in Textile Technology from UMIST, UK and a Masters degree in Business Administration from the University of Illinois, USA.
Mr. Shreyans Gupta is an officer of the Indian Revenue Service (IRS), currently serving as First Secretary at the Embassy of India in Washington D.C. In his current role, he oversees critical portfolios within the Income-tax Overseas Unit (ITOU) and the Commerce Wing, facilitating bilateral and multilateral cooperation.
Eric Trachtenberg is the Executive Director of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).
Pia Terasa joined the textile machinery manufacturer Saurer over 25 years ago. She is responsible for marketing and communications at the group level. Coming originally from a non-textile background, market intelligence and business development have played major roles throughout her career. Her current main “hobby” is closely monitoring development of the textile recycling industry and circular economy.
Dr. Md. Fakhre Alam Ibne Tabib is the former Executive Director of the Cotton Development Board of Bangladesh, with over 32 years of experience in cotton production, research, and development. He has demonstrated strong leadership and communication skills in engaging with national and international stakeholders in the cotton sector.
Dr. Elsie Sia Kanza is the current Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United Republic of Tanzania to the United States of America and Mexico. Prior to that role, Ambassador Kanza served as Special Advisor to the President of the World Economic Forum, and, before that, Head of Africa and Member of Executive Committee for 10 years championing growth and development in Africa leveraging public private collaboration. In 2015, She was awarded a Doctorate in Business Administration (honoris causa) by the University of Strathclyde for the transformative impact achieved in Africa.
Alison Ward has over 30 years of international experience in sustainability and corporate affairs. Alison is the CEO of CottonConnect, where she leads a team of over 100 employees, impacting the lives of over 800,000 cotton farmers in India, China, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Bangladesh. Under Alison’s leadership the organization: drives supply chain transparency connecting sustainable fibres from farm to store; focuses on the rights and skills of women in supply chains through pioneering gender programmes; and continues to develop innovations at a farm level. She leads cotton strategies and programmes for global brands and retailers.


Name: Mary Concilia Anchang
Besim Özek
SIDDHARTHA RAJAGOPAL, Executive Director – TEXPROCIL