Cotton Prices Uncertain in 2017/18
Date Posted: 01 Aug, 2017
In 2017/18, world cotton production is projected to increase by 8% to 24.9 million tons due entirely to an 8% expansion in world cotton area to 31.7 million hectares, which is below the 20-year average of 32.7 million hectares. The world average yield is forecast at 785 kg/ha. India is expected to remain the world’s largest producer in 2017/18 with output increasing by 6% to 6.1 million tons. After falling by 6% in 2016/17, China’s production is projected to rebound by 7% to 5.2 million tons. Production in the United States is expected to rise by 10% to 4.1 million tons as high prices, sufficient soil moisture in dryland areas and beneficial weather during planting encouraged farmers to expand cotton area by 18% to 4.5 million hectares. After two seasons of contraction, better expected returns for cotton encouraged farmers to expand cotton area in Pakistan by 9% to 2.7 million hectares. Assuming the average yield rises by 8% to 717 kg/ha, Pakistan’s production is projected to increase by 17% to 2 million tons, which is similar to its 15-year average. Cotton production in Brazil is forecast to increase by 5% to 1.6 million tons as high returns in 2016/17, resulting partially from a 17% increase in the average yield, are likely to encourage farmers to expand cotton area.
World cotton consumption in 2017/18 is forecast to rise by 2% to 25 million tons. A modest 1% increase is projected for China, the world’s largest cotton consumer, with its mill use reaching 8.1 million tons in 2017/18. After declining by 3% in 2016/17, consumption in India is forecast to increase by 2% to 5.3 million tons in 2017/18. Pakistan’s mill use is expected to rise by 4% to 2.2 million tons, which follows a 13% decrease in mill use in 2015/16 and stagnation in 2016/17. Consumption in Bangladesh is projected to rise by 5% to 1.5 million tons due to strong demand domestically and internationally, and Turkey’s mill use is expected to remain stable at 1.5 million tons.
World cotton trade is projected to decline by 1% to 7.8 million tons. While the United Sates is expected to remain the world’s largest exporter, its exports are nevertheless forecast to decrease by 8% to 2.9 million tons. India’s exports are forecast to rise by 2% to 930,000 tons, and Australia’s exports are projected to increase by 8% to 760,000 tons. Bangladesh, Vietnam and China are expected to remain the world’s three largest importers. Bangladesh’s imports are projected to increase by 7% to 1.5 million tons, Vietnam’s by 5% to 1.3 million tons, and China by 4% to 1.1 million tons.
World ending stocks are projected to decrease by 1% to 18.8 million tons in 2017/18, with increases outside of China offset by decreases in China’s stocks. China’s stocks are expected to decline by 16% to 8.9 million tons. Ending stocks outside of China are forecast to grow by 19% to 9.8 million tons.
| WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION | |||||||
| 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2017/18 | 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2017/18 | ||
| Changes from previous month | |||||||
| Million Tons | Million Tons | ||||||
| Production | 21.48 | 23.03 | 24.89 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 0.32 | |
| Consumption | 24.18 | 24.47 | 25.00 | -0.10 | 0.15 | 0.27 | |
| Imports | 7.57 | 7.88 | 7.80 | 0.02 | -0.05 | -0.04 | |
| Exports | 7.55 | 7.88 | 7.80 | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.04 | |
| Ending Stocks | 20.33 | 18.90 | 18.80 | 1.66 | 1.61 | 1.65 | |
| Cotlook A Index* | 70 | 83 | 69 | ||||
*The price projection for 2017/18 is based on the ending stocks to mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2015/16 (estimate), 2016/17 (projection) and 2017/18 (projection); on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2016/17 (projection) and 2017/18 (projection); and on the price projection of 2016/17. The price projection is the mid-point of the 95% confidence interval: 54 cts/lb to 87 cts/lb.
Dr Mansurbek Muminov is a senior scientist at the Scientific Research Institute of Fiber Crops in Uzbekistan. His efforts have focused on basic cotton ginning and spinning, and he has authored more than 10 comprehensive research papers in those areas.
Dr. Keshav R. Kranthi, Ph.D is the Chief Scientist at the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), Washington, DC. Before joining the ICAC, he served as the Director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research (CICR) in Nagpur, India, from 2008 to 2017. Dr. Kranthi has thirty-five years of experience as a cotton scientist. He received a gold medal in his Ph.D. in 1991 and has been honored with more than a dozen awards, including the Best CPP Program Award for Research Leadership by the Renewable Natural Resources Research International, UK; the ICAC Researcher of the Year Award in 2009; the Vasantrao Naik Smruti Pratisthan Award in 2004; the ICAR National Award for Leader of Best Team Research in 2006; Fellow of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences in 2009; the ISCI Recognition Award in 2010; Krishi Gaurav Award in 2010; Bhumi Nirman Award in 2011; ISCI Fellow in 2017; the Plant Protection Recognition Award in 2016 by the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Suresh Kotak Global Cotton Award in 2023 and the CRDA life time achievement Award in 2024. Dr. Kranthi has four patents granted in South Africa, Mexico, China, and Uzbekistan, and six patent applications in India. He has published more than 100 peer-reviewed research papers, 20 books/handbooks/manuals, 17 book chapters, and more than 50 popular articles. Dr. Kranthi has presented invited talks and conducted training sessions in more than 40 countries. His research citations are in excess of 6,500. As the chief principal investigator, he coordinated and led more than 35 externally funded international collaboration research projects.
Dr. Charudatta Mayee, Ph.D is a distinguished Indian agricultural scientist and administrator with over five decades of contributions to Indian agriculture. Dr. Mayee currently serves as Adjunct Professor at IARI, New Delhi, and several ICAR institutions and universities. Dr Mayee served as Vice Chancellor of MAU Parbhani, Director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research (ICAR-CICR), Nagpur, and Agriculture Commissioner for the Government of India. Dr Mayee served as Vice President of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS) India. Dr. C.D. Mayee has received numerous accolades spanning five decades, recognizing his transformative contributions to agricultural science. He is an Alexander von Humboldt Fellow and has received lifetime achievement awards from multiple institutions. His early career was marked by the Prof. M.J. Narasimhan Academic Award (1974) and V.P. Gokhale Award (1998), followed by national honors like the Vasantrao Naik Krishi Award (2002), ICAR Outstanding Team Research Award (2003), and Dr. B. Vishwanath Award (2005). He received Lifetime Achievement Awards from the Indian Society for Cotton Improvement (2008), National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (2011), and Indian Phytopathological Society (2017), among others. Four universities conferred Honorary Doctorates (D.Sc.) for his pioneering work (2009–2023). Recent distinctions include the Best Cotton Scientist Award (2022, Cotton Association of India), Krishi Maharshi for Cotton R&D (2024) and the winner of the ICAC Researcher of the Year Award 2025.
Dr. Khalid Mahmood is the Co-Founder of SAWiE, where he has been instrumental in developing digital farm advisory and farm data platforms supporting over 10,000 farmers in Pakistan, improving traceability and transparency across agricultural supply chains. He is leading the development of first-mile traceability systems and the TRUE Cotton platform, connecting farmers with sustainable global textile supply chains.
Dr Olivier Zieschank studied Management at the university of Lausanne, where he graduated in 2005. Until 2010, he worked in a Swiss-based start-up that specialized in negotiating cell tower lease agreements, where he became associate director. In 2010, he returned to university and studied applied economics in Neuchatel, Switzerland. He wrote his PhD in Economics at the University of Freiberg, Germany, where he developed a theory of organization. Mr Zieschank was appointed Economist at the ITMF in August 2017 and became director in January 2021.
Ashwin Chandran holds a Bachelors Degree in Textile Technology from UMIST, UK and a Masters degree in Business Administration from the University of Illinois, USA.
Mr. Shreyans Gupta is an officer of the Indian Revenue Service (IRS), currently serving as First Secretary at the Embassy of India in Washington D.C. In his current role, he oversees critical portfolios within the Income-tax Overseas Unit (ITOU) and the Commerce Wing, facilitating bilateral and multilateral cooperation.
Eric Trachtenberg is the Executive Director of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).
Pia Terasa joined the textile machinery manufacturer Saurer over 25 years ago. She is responsible for marketing and communications at the group level. Coming originally from a non-textile background, market intelligence and business development have played major roles throughout her career. Her current main “hobby” is closely monitoring development of the textile recycling industry and circular economy.
Dr. Md. Fakhre Alam Ibne Tabib is the former Executive Director of the Cotton Development Board of Bangladesh, with over 32 years of experience in cotton production, research, and development. He has demonstrated strong leadership and communication skills in engaging with national and international stakeholders in the cotton sector.
Dr. Elsie Sia Kanza is the current Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United Republic of Tanzania to the United States of America and Mexico. Prior to that role, Ambassador Kanza served as Special Advisor to the President of the World Economic Forum, and, before that, Head of Africa and Member of Executive Committee for 10 years championing growth and development in Africa leveraging public private collaboration. In 2015, She was awarded a Doctorate in Business Administration (honoris causa) by the University of Strathclyde for the transformative impact achieved in Africa.
Alison Ward has over 30 years of international experience in sustainability and corporate affairs. Alison is the CEO of CottonConnect, where she leads a team of over 100 employees, impacting the lives of over 800,000 cotton farmers in India, China, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Bangladesh. Under Alison’s leadership the organization: drives supply chain transparency connecting sustainable fibres from farm to store; focuses on the rights and skills of women in supply chains through pioneering gender programmes; and continues to develop innovations at a farm level. She leads cotton strategies and programmes for global brands and retailers.


Name: Mary Concilia Anchang
Besim Özek
SIDDHARTHA RAJAGOPAL, Executive Director – TEXPROCIL