Global Stocks Expected to Drop by 1% in 2019/20 Season

For Immediate Release

Date Posted: 2 March 2020

Executive Summary

Highlights from the March 2020 Cotton This Month include:

  • Global stocks are expected to decline for the fifth consecutive season
  • China is the only country expected to post a decline
  • Consumption is expected to be steady and production is expected to grow by 1%
  • With prices under pressure, the Secretariat’s price projection is 79 cents per pound
Global Stocks Expected to Drop by 1% in 2019/20 SeasonFor the fifth season in a row, global stocks are expected to drop in 2019/20, decreasing by 1% to 18 million tonnes. The global reduction is completely due to the 5.5% decline in China’s warehouses to 8.4 million tonnes; the rest of the world is expected show an increase of 3% to 9.6 million tonnes.

With consumption projected to remain steady, the gain in stocks is expected to be driven by a 1% increase in global production. India’s crop is expected to jump 12% to 6 million tonnes, with the USA — the world’s largest exporter — posting a 9% gain to 4.4 million tonnes.

The market has already been facing significant uncertainty due to the ongoing trade tensions between the USA and China, so the outbreak of Covid-19 only clouds the outlook further. Combined with the global economic slowdown, these developments have prompted the Secretariat to revise its current price projection to 79 cents per pound.

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Please feel free to contact the author, Ms. Lihan Wei, with questions.

_______________________________________About the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming and trading countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping member countries maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton issues of international significance. The ICAC does not have a role in setting market prices or in intervening in market mechanisms. For more information, please visit www.icac.org.