High Prices Persist Despite Rising Stocks Outside of ChinaDate Posted: 01 Jun, 2017In 2016/17, world cotton production is estimated at 22.9 million tons while world mill use is projected at 24.3 million tons, which represents the second consecutive season where mill use has exceeded production. As a result, world ending stocks are forecast to decrease by 7% to 17.3 million tons. However, this decline occurs entirely within China where stocks at the end of July 2017 are projected down 17% to 9.2 million tons. Stocks held outside of China, however, are forecast to rise by 6% to 8 million tons. Despite the growth in stocks held outside of China, international cotton prices as measured by the Cotlook A Index have averaged 82 cts/lb from August 2016 through May 2017, which is well above the long-term average of 70 cts/lb.
Sales from China’s reserve through May 2017 reached over 1.1 million tons, which brings the total volume of cotton held by the Chinese government to 7.2 million tons. China’s cotton production declined by 2% to 4.9 million tons in 2016/17, but its mill use is projected to increase by 2% to 7.7 million tons. Imports by China are anticipated to increase by 10% to 1.06 million tons, which is the first increase since 2011/12, though any further increase is limited by the import quota. Thus, sales from the reserve are being used to make up for the shortfall in production while mill use is forecast to remain unchanged at 7.7 million tons in 2017/18.
Production outside of China is estimated up by 10% to 18 million tons in 2016/17 and is expected to grow by 5% to 19 million tons in 2017/18 due to the high prices prevailing this season. Cotton area in India is forecast to expand by 7% to 11.3 million hectares, and assuming yield is similar to the 4-year average of 528 kg/ha, production could increase by 3% to 6 million tons in 2017/18. Farmers in the United States are projected to expand cotton area to 4.6 million hectares with production expected to rise by 12% to 4.2 million tons. Pakistan’s cotton production is projected to increase by 13, and if high prices continue through the end of 2017, cotton production in Brazil could increase to 1.5 million tons. In 2017/18, world trade is expected to remain unchanged from 2016/17 at 8.1 million tons. Given that cotton production is projected to grow in the large consuming countries the need to import cotton will likely decrease.
After falling by 1% to 16.5 million tons in 2016/17, mill use outside of China may increase by 2% to 16.9 million tons in 2017/18 due to much stronger growth in the global economy in 2017 and 2018. Consumption in India is forecast to increase by 3% to 5.2 million tons in 2017/18 as prices for cotton and yarn are likely to be competitive due to the increase in supply. Pakistan’s mill use is expected to rise modestly by 1% to 2.3 million tons as competition from other mills in Asia remains stiff. Consumption in Bangladesh is projected to rise by 5% to 1.5 million tons while Turkey’s mill use is expected to decline by 15,000 tons to 1.4 million tons due to completion from other countries and weak domestic demand.
| WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION | |||||||
| 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2017/18 | 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2017/18 | ||
| Changes from previous month | |||||||
| Million Tons | Million Tons | ||||||
| Production | 21.30 | 22.89 | 24.01 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 0.43 | |
| Consumption | 24.29 | 24.26 | 24.60 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.05 | |
| Imports | 7.55 | 8.06 | 8.08 | 0.01 | 0.11 | -0.01 | |
| Exports | 7.59 | 8.06 | 8.08 | 0.00 | 0.11 | -0.01 | |
| Ending Stocks | 18.74 | 17.37 | 16.41 | -0.44 | -0.48 | -0.14 | |
| Cotlook A Index* | 70 | 81 | 71 | ||||
*The price projection for 2016/17 is based on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China in 2014/15 (estimate), 2015/16 (estimate) and in 2016/17 (projection); on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2015/16 (estimate) and 2016/17 (projection). The price projection is the mid-point of the 95% confidence interval: 78 cts/lb to 83 cts/lb.
* The price projection for 2016/17 is based on the ending stocks to mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2015/16 (estimate), 2016/17 (projection) and 2017/18 (projection); on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2016/17 (projection) and 2017/18 (projection); and on the price projection of 2016/17. The price projection is the mid-point of the 95% confidence interval: 49 cts/lb to 78 cts/lb.
Dr Mansurbek Muminov is a senior scientist at the Scientific Research Institute of Fiber Crops in Uzbekistan. His efforts have focused on basic cotton ginning and spinning, and he has authored more than 10 comprehensive research papers in those areas.
Dr. Keshav R. Kranthi, Ph.D is the Chief Scientist at the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), Washington, DC. Before joining the ICAC, he served as the Director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research (CICR) in Nagpur, India, from 2008 to 2017. Dr. Kranthi has thirty-five years of experience as a cotton scientist. He received a gold medal in his Ph.D. in 1991 and has been honored with more than a dozen awards, including the Best CPP Program Award for Research Leadership by the Renewable Natural Resources Research International, UK; the ICAC Researcher of the Year Award in 2009; the Vasantrao Naik Smruti Pratisthan Award in 2004; the ICAR National Award for Leader of Best Team Research in 2006; Fellow of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences in 2009; the ISCI Recognition Award in 2010; Krishi Gaurav Award in 2010; Bhumi Nirman Award in 2011; ISCI Fellow in 2017; the Plant Protection Recognition Award in 2016 by the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Suresh Kotak Global Cotton Award in 2023 and the CRDA life time achievement Award in 2024. Dr. Kranthi has four patents granted in South Africa, Mexico, China, and Uzbekistan, and six patent applications in India. He has published more than 100 peer-reviewed research papers, 20 books/handbooks/manuals, 17 book chapters, and more than 50 popular articles. Dr. Kranthi has presented invited talks and conducted training sessions in more than 40 countries. His research citations are in excess of 6,500. As the chief principal investigator, he coordinated and led more than 35 externally funded international collaboration research projects.
Dr. Charudatta Mayee, Ph.D is a distinguished Indian agricultural scientist and administrator with over five decades of contributions to Indian agriculture. Dr. Mayee currently serves as Adjunct Professor at IARI, New Delhi, and several ICAR institutions and universities. Dr Mayee served as Vice Chancellor of MAU Parbhani, Director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research (ICAR-CICR), Nagpur, and Agriculture Commissioner for the Government of India. Dr Mayee served as Vice President of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS) India. Dr. C.D. Mayee has received numerous accolades spanning five decades, recognizing his transformative contributions to agricultural science. He is an Alexander von Humboldt Fellow and has received lifetime achievement awards from multiple institutions. His early career was marked by the Prof. M.J. Narasimhan Academic Award (1974) and V.P. Gokhale Award (1998), followed by national honors like the Vasantrao Naik Krishi Award (2002), ICAR Outstanding Team Research Award (2003), and Dr. B. Vishwanath Award (2005). He received Lifetime Achievement Awards from the Indian Society for Cotton Improvement (2008), National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (2011), and Indian Phytopathological Society (2017), among others. Four universities conferred Honorary Doctorates (D.Sc.) for his pioneering work (2009–2023). Recent distinctions include the Best Cotton Scientist Award (2022, Cotton Association of India), Krishi Maharshi for Cotton R&D (2024) and the winner of the ICAC Researcher of the Year Award 2025.
Dr. Khalid Mahmood is the Co-Founder of SAWiE, where he has been instrumental in developing digital farm advisory and farm data platforms supporting over 10,000 farmers in Pakistan, improving traceability and transparency across agricultural supply chains. He is leading the development of first-mile traceability systems and the TRUE Cotton platform, connecting farmers with sustainable global textile supply chains.
Dr Olivier Zieschank studied Management at the university of Lausanne, where he graduated in 2005. Until 2010, he worked in a Swiss-based start-up that specialized in negotiating cell tower lease agreements, where he became associate director. In 2010, he returned to university and studied applied economics in Neuchatel, Switzerland. He wrote his PhD in Economics at the University of Freiberg, Germany, where he developed a theory of organization. Mr Zieschank was appointed Economist at the ITMF in August 2017 and became director in January 2021.
Ashwin Chandran holds a Bachelors Degree in Textile Technology from UMIST, UK and a Masters degree in Business Administration from the University of Illinois, USA.
Mr. Shreyans Gupta is an officer of the Indian Revenue Service (IRS), currently serving as First Secretary at the Embassy of India in Washington D.C. In his current role, he oversees critical portfolios within the Income-tax Overseas Unit (ITOU) and the Commerce Wing, facilitating bilateral and multilateral cooperation.
Eric Trachtenberg is the Executive Director of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).
Pia Terasa joined the textile machinery manufacturer Saurer over 25 years ago. She is responsible for marketing and communications at the group level. Coming originally from a non-textile background, market intelligence and business development have played major roles throughout her career. Her current main “hobby” is closely monitoring development of the textile recycling industry and circular economy.
Dr. Md. Fakhre Alam Ibne Tabib is the former Executive Director of the Cotton Development Board of Bangladesh, with over 32 years of experience in cotton production, research, and development. He has demonstrated strong leadership and communication skills in engaging with national and international stakeholders in the cotton sector.
Dr. Elsie Sia Kanza is the current Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United Republic of Tanzania to the United States of America and Mexico. Prior to that role, Ambassador Kanza served as Special Advisor to the President of the World Economic Forum, and, before that, Head of Africa and Member of Executive Committee for 10 years championing growth and development in Africa leveraging public private collaboration. In 2015, She was awarded a Doctorate in Business Administration (honoris causa) by the University of Strathclyde for the transformative impact achieved in Africa.
Alison Ward has over 30 years of international experience in sustainability and corporate affairs. Alison is the CEO of CottonConnect, where she leads a team of over 100 employees, impacting the lives of over 800,000 cotton farmers in India, China, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Bangladesh. Under Alison’s leadership the organization: drives supply chain transparency connecting sustainable fibres from farm to store; focuses on the rights and skills of women in supply chains through pioneering gender programmes; and continues to develop innovations at a farm level. She leads cotton strategies and programmes for global brands and retailers.


Name: Mary Concilia Anchang
Besim Özek
SIDDHARTHA RAJAGOPAL, Executive Director – TEXPROCIL