For Immediate Release
Date Posted: 2 January 2019
Executive Summary
Highlights from the January edition of Cotton This Month regarding the 2018/19 season:
- The midpoint for the 2018/19 price forecast is 86.45 cents/lb, down from last month’s forecast of 89 cents
- The price forecast has a range from 75.60 cents to 100.21 cents
- The projection reflects a 95% confidence interval
- The forecast is based various assumptions, including global consumption, ending stocks, and world trade
ICAC Revises Its Price Forecast to 86.45 cents
With a confidence interval of 95%, the Secretariat of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has set its 2018/19 price forecast for cotton fibre at 86.45 cents per pound, down from 89 cents in December 2018.
The forecast, which has a price range from a low of 75.60 cents to a high of 100.21 cents, is based on the following assumptions:
- World cotton consumption will be 26.7 million tonnes.
- World cotton ending stocks will be 18.2 million tonnes.
- World trade will be 9.4 million tonnes.
- China’s cotton consumption will be 8.45 million tonnes.
- Ending stocks in China will be 7.66 million tonnes, and
- China’s cotton imports will total 1.6 million tonnes.
World Cotton Supply and Demand
| 2016/17 | 2017/18 | 2018/19 | ||||||
| Million Tonnes | Change/Month | Million Tonnes | Change/Month | Million Tonnes | Change/Month | |||
| Beginning Stocks | 20.33 | 0.00 | 18.81 | 0.00 | 18.76 | 0.00 | ||
| Production | 23.08 | 0.00 | 26.75 | 0.00 | 26.16 | 0.04 | ||
| Supply | 43.41 | 0.00 | 45.57 | 0.00 | 44.92 | 0.04 | ||
| Consumption | 24.50 | 0.00 | 26.81 | 0.00 | 26.70 | -0.02 | ||
| Exports | 8.18 | 0.00 | 9.00 | 0.00 | 9.42 | 0.00 | ||
| Ending Stocks | 18.81 | 0.00 | 18.76 | 0.00 | 18.21 | 0.05 | ||
| ICAC Price Projections | ||||||||
| Season-average Cotlook A Index (US cents per pound) | ||||||||
| Projections | Previous Month | This Month | ||||||
| Range | Midpoint | Range | Midpoint | |||||
| 2018/19* | 74-107 | 89 | 76-100 | 86 | ||||
*The price projection for 2018/19 is based on the ending stocks-to-mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2016/17 (estimate), in 2017/18 (estimate) and in 2018/19 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2017/18 (estimate) and 2018/19 (projection), and the average price of 2017/18. Projection reflects 95% confidence interval.
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About the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming and trading countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping member countries maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton issues of international significance. The ICAC does not have a role in setting market prices or in intervening in market mechanisms. For more information, please visit www.icac.org.
Pia Terasa joined the textile machinery manufacturer Saurer over 25 years ago. She is responsible for marketing and communications at the group level. Coming originally from a non-textile background, market intelligence and business development have played major roles throughout her career. Her current main “hobby” is closely monitoring development of the textile recycling industry and circular economy.
Dr. Md. Fakhre Alam Ibne Tabib is the former Executive Director of the Cotton Development Board of Bangladesh, with over 32 years of experience in cotton production, research, and development. He has demonstrated strong leadership and communication skills in engaging with national and international stakeholders in the cotton sector.
Dr. Elsie Sia Kanza is the current Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United Republic of Tanzania to the United States of America and Mexico. Prior to that role, Ambassador Kanza served as Special Advisor to the President of the World Economic Forum, and, before that, Head of Africa and Member of Executive Committee for 10 years championing growth and development in Africa leveraging public private collaboration. In 2015, She was awarded a Doctorate in Business Administration (honoris causa) by the University of Strathclyde for the transformative impact achieved in Africa.
Alison Ward has over 30 years of international experience in sustainability and corporate affairs. Alison is the CEO of CottonConnect, where she leads a team of over 100 employees, impacting the lives of over 800,000 cotton farmers in India, China, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Bangladesh. Under Alison’s leadership the organization: drives supply chain transparency connecting sustainable fibres from farm to store; focuses on the rights and skills of women in supply chains through pioneering gender programmes; and continues to develop innovations at a farm level. She leads cotton strategies and programmes for global brands and retailers.


Name: Mary Concilia Anchang
Besim Özek
SIDDHARTHA RAJAGOPAL, Executive Director – TEXPROCIL