Oct CTM: 2024/25 Ending Stocks Are Expected to Be the Lowest since 2011/12

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Date Posted: October 1, 2025

Washington, DC — With world cotton lint demand and supply metrics for 2025/26 remaining comparable to last month — production at 25.43 million tonnes and consumption at 25.4 million tonnes — the biggest development is in ending stocks, expected to be the lowest since 2011/12.

The 3.8% decrease in stocks, to 15.37 million tonnes, is mostly being driven by China, whose 2024/25 ending stocks declined 9% to 7.89 million tonnes. The use of stocks is the primary reason China’s imports fell 65% to 1.1 million tonnes. For 2025/26, China has announced that it will issue 200,000 tonnes of sliding tariff rate cotton import quotas to textile enterprises to meet their cotton needs, same as last year.

While the stocks outside China increased by 2% in the 2024/25 season, a major increase is reported by the USA, which ended the 2024/25 season with 9% higher ending stocks compared to the previous season at 817,000 tonnes. Apart from the USA, both Brazil and the West Africa region are also currently reporting higher ending stocks in the 2024/25 season.

ICAC Data Rectification Process
The ICAC Secretariat is undertaking data rectification work, during which we will perform data adjustments for all our reported regions and countries. ICAC is the primary source for all of our statistical data. This month, Decade-long changes to cotton market variables have been made for Peru, Colombia, and Tanzania. Trade data adjustments have also been made to Mexico, El Salvador, and Guatemala.

ICAC’s Statistical Data Portal
For the most current statistics, please refer to the ICAC’s Statistics Portal. It is updated with new data constantly, and that new information is immediately reflected in the Portal, making it a valuable resource all month long.

ICAC’s Price Projections
The Secretariat’s current price forecast for the 2025/26 season, based on current supply and demand estimates, ranges from 63 to 97 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 77.6 cents per pound. ICAC’s price projections are made by Ms Lorena Ruiz, ICAC Economist.

The author of Cotton This Month is Parkhi Vats, ICAC Economic Affairs Officer. You can email her with comments and questions by clicking here.

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The next Cotton This Month will be released on November 3, 2025.