Stocks declining in China, increasing elsewhere

In 2017/18, world cotton production is estimated at 26.6 million tonnes while world mill use is projected at 25.5 million tonnes, which represents the third consecutive season of growth in demand for cotton. China stocks are projected down to 9 million tonnes. Stocks held outside of China are projected up to 10.3 million tonnes, a continuous increase over the past four consecutive seasons. Along with weather issues in the Xinjiang region which represents 75% of China’s cotton area and potential drought conditions in West Texas affecting 25% of the US crop, there may be concern of quality supply gaps which may affect next seasons supply.

World cotton consumption is projected to increase to 26.7 million tonnes in 2018/19, while world cotton production is estimated at 25.7 million tonnes. Production in China is projected to decrease to 5.6 million tonnes in 2018/19 based on reduced planting area, while consumption is forecasted to increase to 8.4 million tonnes. US production is projected to decrease to 4.2 million tonnes with exports projected to increase 3% to 3.3 million tonnes in 2018/19. Reduced yields in 2017/18 in India are contributing to lowered planted area for 2018/19 with exports projected at 840,000 tonnes representing a 24% decrease from the previous season. Production in Brazil for the 2017/18 season is estimated to be 1.9 million tonnes, a 26% increase from 2016/17, with 900,000 tonnes projected for export. Production for the West Africa region in 2017/18 is projected at 1.2 million tonnes, representing a 13% growth from the previous season, with exports for the region expected at 1.04 million tonnes.