Date Posted: 01 Jul, 2013
The Cotlook A Index rose to 96.65 cents per pound around mid-June 2013 before receding to the low 90s cents level towards the end of the month. On June 12th, the USDA increased 2012/13 U.S. export estimate to 3 million tons due to continued strong sales to China, and lowered the estimate of 2013/14 U.S. production to 2.9 million tons due to drought in the southwest. The Cotlook A Index rose 2.90 cents per pound the following day. A week later, the Federal Reserve’s signal that it could start scaling back its huge economic stimulus program later this year triggered only a modest drop of 1.75 cents per pound in the Cotlook A Index.
China’s national cotton reserve is estimated at close to 9 million tons as of the end of June, and the reserve may be down to 8 million tons by the end of July. Purchases into the reserve will resume in September as the 2013/14 harvest begins.
In May the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for China’s growth to 7.75% this year. The new administration in China has initiated a series of reforms designed to open up the economy to private investment and speed up urbanization which will likely accelerate the reduction of cotton area. In June, the People’s Bank of China stated that the government was willing to tighten monetary policy to achieve more stable economic growth. The new policy already had an immediate impact on spinners who are reducing purchases from the reserve, which requires payment upon delivery, and expanding imports with 90-day letters of credit.
All in all, China’s cotton policy remains the main driver of world cotton prices. With the recent acknowledgement of the market distortion created by its national cotton reserve programs, Chinese policymakers are already planning to experiment with a direct subsidy in Xinjiang. At the provincial level, in an effort to stop the rapid decline of cotton planting in Hebei, cotton farmers were paid a direct subsidy in April this year.
Since 2010/11 world cotton production has exceeded world cotton consumption. While the 2012/13 global ending stocks are expected to be approximately split evenly between China and the rest of the world, China is projected to hold close to 60% of the global stocks by the end of 2013/14.
| WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION | |||||||
| 2011/12 | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2011/12 | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | ||
| Changes from previous month | |||||||
| Million Tons | Million Tons | ||||||
| Production | 27.79 | 26.39 | 24.95 | 0.00 | 0.03 | -0.14 | |
| Consumption | 22.10 | 23.78 | 24.33 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | |
| Imports | 9.81 | 9.79 | 9.22 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.18 | |
| Exports | 9.82 | 9.79 | 9.22 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.18 | |
| Ending Stocks | 15.27 | 17.88 | 18.51 | 0.01 | 0.03 | -0.13 | |
| Cotlook A Index* | 1.00 | 88.00** | 115.00** | ||||
* The price projection for 2012/13 is based on the ending stocks/mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2010/11 (estimate), in 2011/12 (estimate) and 2012/13 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2011/12 (estimate) and 2012/13 (projection), and on the average price for the first eleven months of 2012/13.
95% confidence interval: 87 to 91 cents per pound.
** The price projection for 2013/14 is based on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China in 2011/12 (estimate), in 2012/13 (projection) and in 2013/14 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2012/13 (estimate) and 2013/14 (projection), and on the price projection of 2012/13.
95% confidence interval: 101 to 148 cents per pound.
Dr Mansurbek Muminov is a senior scientist at the Scientific Research Institute of Fiber Crops in Uzbekistan. His efforts have focused on basic cotton ginning and spinning, and he has authored more than 10 comprehensive research papers in those areas.
Dr. Keshav R. Kranthi, Ph.D is the Chief Scientist at the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), Washington, DC. Before joining the ICAC, he served as the Director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research (CICR) in Nagpur, India, from 2008 to 2017. Dr. Kranthi has thirty-five years of experience as a cotton scientist. He received a gold medal in his Ph.D. in 1991 and has been honored with more than a dozen awards, including the Best CPP Program Award for Research Leadership by the Renewable Natural Resources Research International, UK; the ICAC Researcher of the Year Award in 2009; the Vasantrao Naik Smruti Pratisthan Award in 2004; the ICAR National Award for Leader of Best Team Research in 2006; Fellow of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences in 2009; the ISCI Recognition Award in 2010; Krishi Gaurav Award in 2010; Bhumi Nirman Award in 2011; ISCI Fellow in 2017; the Plant Protection Recognition Award in 2016 by the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Suresh Kotak Global Cotton Award in 2023 and the CRDA life time achievement Award in 2024. Dr. Kranthi has four patents granted in South Africa, Mexico, China, and Uzbekistan, and six patent applications in India. He has published more than 100 peer-reviewed research papers, 20 books/handbooks/manuals, 17 book chapters, and more than 50 popular articles. Dr. Kranthi has presented invited talks and conducted training sessions in more than 40 countries. His research citations are in excess of 6,500. As the chief principal investigator, he coordinated and led more than 35 externally funded international collaboration research projects.
Dr. Charudatta Mayee, Ph.D is a distinguished Indian agricultural scientist and administrator with over five decades of contributions to Indian agriculture. Dr. Mayee currently serves as Adjunct Professor at IARI, New Delhi, and several ICAR institutions and universities. Dr Mayee served as Vice Chancellor of MAU Parbhani, Director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research (ICAR-CICR), Nagpur, and Agriculture Commissioner for the Government of India. Dr Mayee served as Vice President of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS) India. Dr. C.D. Mayee has received numerous accolades spanning five decades, recognizing his transformative contributions to agricultural science. He is an Alexander von Humboldt Fellow and has received lifetime achievement awards from multiple institutions. His early career was marked by the Prof. M.J. Narasimhan Academic Award (1974) and V.P. Gokhale Award (1998), followed by national honors like the Vasantrao Naik Krishi Award (2002), ICAR Outstanding Team Research Award (2003), and Dr. B. Vishwanath Award (2005). He received Lifetime Achievement Awards from the Indian Society for Cotton Improvement (2008), National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (2011), and Indian Phytopathological Society (2017), among others. Four universities conferred Honorary Doctorates (D.Sc.) for his pioneering work (2009–2023). Recent distinctions include the Best Cotton Scientist Award (2022, Cotton Association of India), Krishi Maharshi for Cotton R&D (2024) and the winner of the ICAC Researcher of the Year Award 2025.
Dr. Khalid Mahmood is the Co-Founder of SAWiE, where he has been instrumental in developing digital farm advisory and farm data platforms supporting over 10,000 farmers in Pakistan, improving traceability and transparency across agricultural supply chains. He is leading the development of first-mile traceability systems and the TRUE Cotton platform, connecting farmers with sustainable global textile supply chains.
Dr Olivier Zieschank studied Management at the university of Lausanne, where he graduated in 2005. Until 2010, he worked in a Swiss-based start-up that specialized in negotiating cell tower lease agreements, where he became associate director. In 2010, he returned to university and studied applied economics in Neuchatel, Switzerland. He wrote his PhD in Economics at the University of Freiberg, Germany, where he developed a theory of organization. Mr Zieschank was appointed Economist at the ITMF in August 2017 and became director in January 2021.
Ashwin Chandran holds a Bachelors Degree in Textile Technology from UMIST, UK and a Masters degree in Business Administration from the University of Illinois, USA.
Mr. Shreyans Gupta is an officer of the Indian Revenue Service (IRS), currently serving as First Secretary at the Embassy of India in Washington D.C. In his current role, he oversees critical portfolios within the Income-tax Overseas Unit (ITOU) and the Commerce Wing, facilitating bilateral and multilateral cooperation.
Eric Trachtenberg is the Executive Director of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).
Pia Terasa joined the textile machinery manufacturer Saurer over 25 years ago. She is responsible for marketing and communications at the group level. Coming originally from a non-textile background, market intelligence and business development have played major roles throughout her career. Her current main “hobby” is closely monitoring development of the textile recycling industry and circular economy.
Dr. Md. Fakhre Alam Ibne Tabib is the former Executive Director of the Cotton Development Board of Bangladesh, with over 32 years of experience in cotton production, research, and development. He has demonstrated strong leadership and communication skills in engaging with national and international stakeholders in the cotton sector.
Dr. Elsie Sia Kanza is the current Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United Republic of Tanzania to the United States of America and Mexico. Prior to that role, Ambassador Kanza served as Special Advisor to the President of the World Economic Forum, and, before that, Head of Africa and Member of Executive Committee for 10 years championing growth and development in Africa leveraging public private collaboration. In 2015, She was awarded a Doctorate in Business Administration (honoris causa) by the University of Strathclyde for the transformative impact achieved in Africa.
Alison Ward has over 30 years of international experience in sustainability and corporate affairs. Alison is the CEO of CottonConnect, where she leads a team of over 100 employees, impacting the lives of over 800,000 cotton farmers in India, China, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Bangladesh. Under Alison’s leadership the organization: drives supply chain transparency connecting sustainable fibres from farm to store; focuses on the rights and skills of women in supply chains through pioneering gender programmes; and continues to develop innovations at a farm level. She leads cotton strategies and programmes for global brands and retailers.


Name: Mary Concilia Anchang
Besim Özek
SIDDHARTHA RAJAGOPAL, Executive Director – TEXPROCIL